Goa evolves new theory of defection-free stability

Sandesh Prabhudesai
1 December 1999 

Is razor thin majority of 21 the most ideal number to provide a stable government in the 40-member Assembly of Goa ?

If it is less, the hung Assembly has to either go for a shaky coalition or engineer defections to form the government. And if it exceeds 21, then the sword of defection starts hanging over the chief minister's head.

It's a new theory evolved by Goan politicians, based on which the new coalition – the Goa Democratic Alliance – has been formed under the leadership of Francisco Sardinha, the Congress rebel.

The logic of 21 is simple, says BJP leader Manohar Parrikar, who also claims that he has the least role to play in any topplings taken place till date – 11 in last nine years. It has to corroborate with the limit of 14 ministers for a jumbo cabinet and legal provision of one third to split any legislature party.

A party of 21 can run a trouble-free government by making 14 ministers and the speaker and the deputy speaker. With 16 having positions, only five remain out which cannot form one third. Even they can be satisfied by giving good 'lucrative' corporations.

Every additional number makes the government little weaker though Parrikar considers 23 as the break-even point. The minute it touches 24, the death bell starts ringing as it keeps out eight – the right number to split the party and become a minister in an alternate government.

"You undoubtedly invite trouble when it reaches 25 and no government can survive from 26 onwards, provided greed for power is the basic aim to become the MLA", says Parrikar. He applies the same theory to the coalition governments.

His theory sounds logical if the fate of Faleiro government is reviewed. It collapsed within five months when he engineered three defections to swell the number to 26 from 21. He had to increase number of his loyalists because even the ministers were not happy with the portfolios allotted to them.

"Our coalition of 21 would not have such problems because six of us are satisfied by remaining out of power", claims Parrikar. Even all the ministers are given one portfolio of their choice by Sardinha, points out his close associate.

There is also a theory evolved while splitting 11 Congressmen from the party of 26, though nine would have been enough to make it one third. With BJP's 10 added to that, the coalition is not dependent on others for survival, though two from the MGP, one from the NCP and one independent are supporting Sardinha.

"There is also another facet to it. You require at least four people to split our splinter group now which could be otherwise done with three", discloses a minister, who was also holding cabinet position in the erstwhile Congress government.

In a nutshell, merely calculating one third to split the party is an ancient theory of survival. You need to now also make a provision to avoid further split from the splinter group, as it had happened in November last year when three had split from Dr Wilfred de Souza's ruling splinter group of Goa Rajiv Congress.

Goa has also evolved a theory to make a group of 'loyal one third'. As the rebels were not finding the guaranteed ninth person in the Congress, they now openly admit that Francis D'Souza was sent from the NCP with a pre-plan.

He defected and joined the Congress on 5 November and jumped back with Sardinha on 19 November. The other two fence-sitters came only after making it sure that the splinter group comprised of more than one third.

One has to see for how long this new theory, yet another one evolved by Goa once again, helps in providing a 'stable' government by satisfying everybody's greed.

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