Sandesh Prabhudesai
3 September 1999
He is quite desperate to go the Lok Sabha once again, after having a
sensational tenure as the union minister in 1996. But his action of joining
the Congress has pushed him on such a slippery ground that he would be
himself held responsible if he loses.
Ramakant Khalap, the Congress candidate this time, appears to have
miscalculated feelings of the electorate while getting carried away with
the simple calculation to win the North Goa (Panaji) seat, which he had
lost in '98 to the Congress as the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party candidate.
His erstwhile regional outfit is not in the fray this time. But rather than
this factor making his condition strong, the Bharatiya Janata Party may
benefit more if the mood among the electorate in the interior areas is any
indication.
Hordes of young turks and even old and veteran MGP men have been joining
the BJP, cursing Khalap for ditching the MGP for his personal benefits.
Khalap however is not left all alone as he has partly succeeded in taking
quite a few cadres along with him.
His calculation was simple. Though he was pushed to third position last
time while the BJP lost to the Congress by only 420 votes, he combines his
62,000 votes to that of Ravi Naik (Congress MP) - around 68,000 - taking
the grand total to around 1,30,000. It leaves the BJP with only 68,000 to
its credit while creating a gap of 62,000.
But politics is not mere arithmetic, especially when North Goa has no
tradition of electing the same party or the candidate consecutively for the
second time. Rather than voting in a traditional monotonous manner, this
constituency has always chosen the candidate on the basis of merits and
performance.
Khalap definitely has better merits than BJP candidate Shripad Naik in
terms of Parliamentary performance. But the former union minister has a
challenge of countering the strong wave in favour of prime minister Atal
Bihari Vajpayee and convince his former MGP men why they should not go with
the BJP.
As they lost the seat last time by hardly 420 votes, the BJP cadres are
moving in a much more organised fashion this time, to consolidate as well
as to strengthen its base. It had secured a lead in five Assembly segments,
similar to what Khalap had gained, while giving lead to the Congress in six
segments.
Khalap would definitely once again secure lead in his Pernem taluka,
consisting of three segments, which has also elected him the MLA this time.
Former chief minister Pratapsing Rane is also working hard for the
Congress as his brother-in-law hails from Sandur (segment of Bellary),
which may help him to impress party president Sonia Gandhi. His Sattari
taluka may thus also go for the Congress.
But problem lies in rest of the three talukas, out of which Bicholim is the
BJP stronghold whereas opinion appears to be divided in coastal talukas
like Bardez and Tiswadi among the Congress and the BJP. Apparently this
voter would decide the winner.
More than the BJP, Khalap is also facing tough time due to Nationalist
Congress Party candidate Sadanand Malik, his old party colleague, and the
CPI candidate Christopher Fonseca, a popular trade union leader. Though
both of them are not expected to perform well, it would ultimately affect
the Congress and not the BJP.
The Congress victory would thus depend upon how Khalap reverses the
anti-Khalap trend in his favour while winning over people by swimming
against the tide, which presently is in favour of the BJP. Only his
manipulative skills can save him on the slippery ground he is walking on.
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